I Was Right about California, Sort Of

Earlier, I proposed that Mitt Romney might win the statewide vote in California yet fall behind in the delegate count. This proved a moot point: contrary to my prediction that Romney would prevail, McCain cleaned house, carrying 49 of 53 congressional districts and therefore 158 of 170 available delegates. But based on the district-level results, it appears my claim was right: for any given statewide vote total, McCain would have overperformed in the delegate count.

McCain won almost everywhere and got almost all the delegates. However, his performance varied widely across the state:

• Statewide, McCain won 42.0% of the vote, or 55.2% of votes cast either for him or Mitt Romney (the "two-candidate vote").
  
• McCain won every Democratic-held CD. His share of the two-candidate vote in these CDs generally ranged from 53% to 67%, with one outlier (Nancy Pelosi's 8th) at 72%. His total share of the two-candidate vote in Dem CDs was 60.3%.
• McCain also won 15 of 19 Republican-held CDs. However, his total share of the two-candidate vote was just 51.5%-- 8.8% lower than in the Democratic districts-- and ranged from 48% to 56%.
• The 19 GOP CDs cast more total votes than the 34 Dem ones, so the equal weighting for each district constituted a clear advantage for McCain.
  

I adjusted the numbers to produce two delegate scenarios. First, a virtual tie: I changed the statewide totals for Romney and McCain to be equal, and then adjusted each district's vote total proportionately.

• In this scenario, John McCain would have won 31 congressional districts and Mitt Romney only 22. McCain would have taken all but four Democratic-held districts, and Romney all but one Republican-held district.
• A statewide McCain win by one vote would have netted him 104 delegates (11 for winning statewide plus 3 x 31 districts), leaving 66 for Romney (3 x 22 districts). A Romney win by one vote would have given McCain 93 delegates (3 x 31) and Romney only 77 (11 + 3 x 22).

Then, I swapped McCain and Romney's actual statewide totals, to see a scenario where Romney won the two-candidate vote by exactly as much as McCain did in real life.

• In this scenario, Mitt Romney would have managed 38 congressional districts, but McCain would have held on to 15: 12 of the 13 Bay Area districts and three heavily Hispanic districts in Southern California.
  
• The resultant delegate counts would be Romney 125, McCain 45.
  

So, 44.2% of the two-candidate vote was good for 12 Romney delegates, but would have gotten McCain almost four times as many.