Romney Might Win California, But Still Lose California

With John McCain about to run away with victory in most Super Tuesday states, all Republican eyes are on California, the only large primary that looks close. Real Clear Politics has John McCain up by just 3.2% in their poll of polls, so the state is truly up for grabs. Mitt Romney is surely helped by the fact that California's primary is closed-- McCain can't draw on independent voters who would be likely to favor him strongly.

The Problem

The problem for Romney-- aside from the fact that he'll lose many other states-- is California's system of delegate allocation. Of California's 172 delegates to the Republican Convention, 159 are allocated to winners in each congressional district. Further, each district gets three delegates, regardless of how many Republicans it has. (10 delegates are awarded to the statewide winner, and 3 are reserved for party leaders.) I think this system is likely to strongly favor McCain.

To fully understand the perversity of this system, realize that some California congressional districts have almost no Republican voters. Diane Watson's (D) 33rd District cast only about 30,000 votes for George W. Bush in 2004; compare that to a strongly Republican district, Wally Herger's (R) 2nd, which gave Bush 169,000 votes. Each Republican in the 33rd District will have nearly six times' stronger a voice in this primary than a 2nd District Republican.

My read on this system is that McCain benefits, because he will do relatively will with Republican primary voters in Democratic districts. This is because even these areas’ Republican electorates will tend to be more liberal than California Republicans in general.

The Simple Math

Let's say Mitt Romney wins every district with a Republican congressman and John McCain wins every district with a Democratic congressman. Romney will win the statewide vote, because those Republican districts will cast many more primary ballots than the Democratic ones. He'll take home 19 x 3 + 11 = 68 delegates. But John McCain will take 34 x 3 = 102 delegates.

Of course, it’s a big assumption that the wins will break down this way. However, after we classify the state’s congressional districts by likely winner, I reach essentially the same conclusion. Here are my five sets of California congressional districts, and how I expect each to vote.

Latte Liberal California

The first set includes coastal districts that are relatively wealthy and white, and that have a strong Democratic lean; however, they have a significant minority of Republican voters and will have more than a marginal turnout. By my count, these comprise just over half of California’s Democratic seats (18 out of 34: the 1st, 5th, 6th, 7th, 10th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 23rd, 27th, 28th, 29th, 30th, 36th, and 53rd). Generally, these districts are in rural coastal Northern California (1), metro Sacramento (1), suburban SF Bay (9), central coast (2), white suburban Los Angeles (5), and urban San Diego (1).

Republicans in these districts will tend to be more liberal, especially on social issues, than the median California Republican, and I expect them to be strongly disposed toward John McCain. He will sweep these districts.

The People’s Republic of California

The second set consists of very heavily Democratic seats. Except for Nancy Pelosi’s 8th, which consists of the epicenter of American leftism and is over 40% white, these districts are drawn to have a very heavily minority population. I count 10 of these districts (the 8th, 9th, 31st, 32nd, 33rd, 34th, 35th, 37th, 38th, and 39th). These districts are in San Francisco (1), Oakland/Berkeley (1), and black and Hispanic L.A. County (8).

Republican turnout here will range from small to minuscule-- remember, you have to be a registered Republican to vote in the primary-- which means that a campaign can win one of these seats by turning out just a handful of voters. I think McCain will win most of these districts, especially those where Bush won as much as 30% of the vote in 2004. However, Ron Paul has apparently been targeting a few (like Barbara Lee’s Oakland/Berkeley-based 9th) and Romney could pull some out with his strong organization, especially the most Democrat-dominated ones where organization will matter more than organic popularity.

Purple California

The third set consists of districts that are only marginally Democratic. They are located in traditionally Republican regions, but have just enough urban and minority population to tip them Democratic. These districts (the 11th, 18th, 20th, 43rd, 47th, and 51st) are in the Central Valley (3), Orange County (1), Inland Empire (1), and suburban San Diego (1).

These seats have large Republican primary electorates that ought to be similar to those in the surrounding Republican districts. I expect Mitt Romney to do well in these areas.

Pete Wilson California

Now I’ve complicated my simple division by giving Mitt Romney some of the Democratic districts. However, I had also oversimplified by not giving John McCain any of the Republican districts. McCain is likely to do well in districts that are Republican, but not by much; where voters like California’s moderate Republican governors, but where Republican congressmen are increasingly holding on by the skin of their teeth. Schwarzenegger’s endorsement will help McCain here.

Unfortunately for McCain, I only see five of these districts-- there used to be more, but a lot have elected Democrats and moved into the Latte Liberal column. The remaining ones are the 24th, 25th, 26th, 45th and 46th districts. These are located in Santa Barbara/Ventura Counties (1), north L.A. County (1), San Gabriel Valley (1), Palm Springs (1), and rich coastal L.A. & O.C. (1).

Ronald Reagan California

Remaining are 14 strongly Republican congressional districts. These are the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 19th, 21st, 22nd, 25th, 40th, 41st, 42nd, 44th, 48th, 49th, 50th, and 52nd, which are located in rural Northern California (2), suburban Sacramento (1), Central Valley (3), Orange County/Inland Empire (5), and San Diego County (3).

These seats are the bedrock of California’s Republican Party, home of the base that keeps forcing the party to nominate unelectable conservatives like Bill Simon. With that kind of predisposition, folks here will just adore Mitt Romney.

Sum Total

The district-by-district analysis (assuming McCain manages to sweep the People’s Republic seats) shifts just one net seat to Romney, resulting in a total delegate count of 71 for Romney and 99 for McCain. So, watch for sad faces at Romney HQ, even if he manages to eke out a Golden State victory.